https://jbracher.github.io/

Selected papers

See my Google Scholar profile for an up-to-date bibliography.

• Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VM, Bracher J et al (2022). Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119(15):e2113561119.
• Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, Görgen K, Ketterer J et al (2021). A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave. Nature Communications, 12:5173. Preprint available here.
• Bracher J, Ray EL, Gneiting T and Reich NG (2020) Evaluating epidemic forecasts in an interval format. PLOS Computational Biology 17(2): e1008618. Preprint available here.
• Bracher, J and Held, L (2020) A marginal moment matching approach for fitting endemic-epidemic models to underreported disease surveillance counts. Biometrics 77(4):1202–1214. Preprint available here.
• Bracher J and Held L (2019). Endemic-epidemic models with discrete-time serial interval distributions for infectious disease prediction. International Journal of Forecasting, in press. Preprint available here.
• Bracher J (2019). On the multibin logarithmic score used in the FluSight competitions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(42):20809–20810. Preprint of an extended version available here.
• Held L, Meyer S and Bracher J (2017). Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: the 13th Armitage lecture, Statistics in Medicine 36(22):3443-3460. Preprint available here.

Recent preprints

• Bracher J (2022). A thinning-based representation of the compound-Poisson INGARCH model, with an interpretation as a stochastic epidemic process.
• Ray EL, Brooks LC, Bien J, Biggerstaff M, Bosse NI, Bracher J et al (2022). Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States.
• Bracher J, Wolffram D, Deuschel J, Görgen K, Ketterer J et al (2021). National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland, early 2021.
• Bosse NI, Abbott S, Bracher J, Hain H, Quilty BJ et al (2021). Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland.
• Bracher J and Littek JM (2021). An empirical assessment of influenza intensity thresholds obtained from the moving epidemic and WHO methods.

• Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences. Hamburg, 31 Mar 2022, DAGStat Conference.
• A marginal moment matching approach for fitting endemic-epidemic models to underreported disease surveillance counts.. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 23 Mar 2022, Workshop on the Endemic-Epidemic framework for infectious disease modelling. See also recording here.