Prof. Dr. Melanie Schienle

short bio

[long CV]  (last update 03/2023)

since 04/2015 professor and chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics, department of Economics and Managment, KIT
since 02/2021 professor, department of Mathematics, KIT
10/2012 - 03/2015 professor of Econometrics, Leibniz University Hannover
11/2008 - 09/2012 assistant professor Econometrics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
2008 dr. rer. pol. "summa cum laude", Mannheim University,
Graduate School in Economics (Advisors: Enno Mammen, Oliver Linton)
2003 diploma with distinction in Mathematics
with minor in theoretical Physics, University of Karlsruhe

associate editor, international journal of forecasting (since 2023)
associate editor, journal of time series analysis (since 2016)
senior researcher, Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies, HITS (since 2023)
elected board member, german economic association (VFS) (since 2023)
chairwoman, standing fields committee of econometrics in the german economic association/ Vorsitzende Ausschuss für Ökonometrie, Verein für Socialpolitik (since 2019)

co-spokesperson, center of Mathematics in Sciences, Economics and Engineering (MathSEE) at KIT (since 2021)
vice-dean of research, department of Economics and Management KIT (since 2023)
PI graduate school KCDS (since 2022)
PI graduate school HIDSS4Health (since 2020)
member of CRYS (university research council) at KIT (since 2017)

key initiatives:



Large Spillover Networks of Nonstationary Systems (with Shi Chen), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022+, forthcoming, [doi: 10.1080/07350015.2022.2099870] [working paper]

Model Diagnostics and forecast Evaluation for Quantiles (with Tilmann Gneiting, Daniel Wolffram, Johannes Resin, Johannes Bracher, Timo Dimitriadis, Veit Hagenmeyer, Alexander Jordan, Kristof Kraus, Sebastian Lerch, Kaleb Phipps), Annual Review of Statistics and its Applications, 2023, Vol. 10, [doi: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-032921-020240] 

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland, early 2021 (with J. Bracher, D. Wolffram, J. Deuschel, K. Görgen, J.L. Ketterer, A. Ullrich, S. Abbott, M.V. Barbarossa, D. Bertsimas, S. Bhatia, M. Bodych, N.I. Bosse, J.P. Burgard, J. Fuhrmann, S. Funk, K. Gogolewski, S. Heyder, T. Hotz, Y. Kheifetz, H. Kirsten, T. Krueger, E. Krymova, N. Leithäuser, M.L. Li, J.H. Meinke ,B. Miasojedow, J. Mohring, P. Nouvellet, J.M. Nowosielski, T. Ożański, M. Radwan, F. Rakowski, M. Scholz, S. Soni, A. Srivastava, T. Gneiting),  Communications Medicine, 2022,  Volume 2, 136 [doi: 10.1038/s43856-022-00191-8]   preprint older version

Assessing the Impact of Policy and Regulation Interventions in European Sovereign Credit Risk Networks: What worked best? (with Rebekka Buse and Jörg Urban), Journal of International Economics, 2022, Volume 139, 103673 [doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103673]  [older version as ESRB working paper]

Collaborative hubs: making the most of predictive epidemic modeling (joint with N.G. Reich, J. Lessler, S. Funk, C. Viboud, A. Vespignani, R.J. Tibshirani, K. Shea, M.C. Runge1, R. Rosenfeld, E.L. Ray, R. Niehus, H.C. Johnson, M.A. Johansson, H. Hochheiser, L. Gardner, J. Bracher, R.K. Borchering, M. Biggerstaff) American Journal of Public Health, 2021, Volume 112, No 6, 839-842. [doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2022.306831], [working paper]

A preregistered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave (joint with J. Bracher, D. Wolffram, J. Deuschel, K. Görgen, J.L. Ketterer, A. Ullrich, S. Abbott, M.V. Barbarossa, D. Bertsimas, S. Bhatia, M. Bodych, N.I. Bosse, J.P. Burgard, J. Fuhrmann, S. Funk, K. Gogolewski, Q. Gu, S. Heyder, T. Hotz, Y. Kheifetz, H. Kirsten, T. Krueger, E. Krymova, M.L. Li, J.H. Meinke, K. Niedzielewski, T. Ożański, F. Rakowski, M. Scholz, S. Soni, A. Srivastava, J. Zieliński, D. Zou, T. Gneiting)  Nature Communications, 2021, Volume 12, Article number 5173 [doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25207-0] [working paper on medRxiv], [platform], [pre-registration]

Testing for an Omitted Long-Term Component in Multiplicative GARCH Models (joint with Christian Conrad), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2020, Vol.38, No.2, 229-242 [doi:10.1080/07350015.2018.1482759] [working paper version]

Detecting structural differences in tail dependence of financial time series (joint with Carsten Bormann), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2020, Vol.38, No.2, 380-392 [doi:10.1080/07350015.2018.1506343]  [working paper] [online appendix]

A retrospective assessment of different endodontic treatment protocols (with Andreas Bartols, Carsten Bormann, Luisa Werner,Winfried Walther, Christof E. Dörfer) PeerJ, 2020, [doi:10.7717/peerj.8495]

Determination of Vector Error Correction Models in High Dimensions (with Chong Liang), Journal of Econometrics, 2019, Vol. 208, No. 2, 418-441 [doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2018.09.018], [working paper] , [online appendix]

Measuring Connectedness of Euro Area Sovereign Risk (joint with Rebekka Buse), International Journal of Forecasting, 2019, Vol.35 , No.1, 25-44; [doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.010], [working paper]

Semiparametric Estimation with Generated Covariates (joint with Enno Mammen and Christoph Rothe)  Econometric Theory,  2016, Vol. 32, No.5, 1140-1177; [doi:10.1017/S0266466615000134] , [working paper version]

Systemic Risk Spillovers in the European Banking and Sovereign Network (joint with Frank Betz, Nikolaus Hautsch and Tuomas Peltonen), Journal of Financial Stability, 2016,  Vol.25 , 206–224   [doi:10.1016/j.jfs.2015.10.006], [working paper version] - [reported in the ECB Financial Stability Review [May 2013] (pages 71-73 (box 6))  and [Nov.2013] (page 74 ,chart 3.15)]

Beyond dimension two: A test for higher-order tail risk (with Carsten Bormann and Julia Schaumburg), Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2016, Vol. 14, No 3,  552-580; [doi: 10.1093/jjfinec/nbv022] [working paper version]

Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions (joint with Nikolaus Hautsch and Julia Schaumburg) Review of Finance,  2015,  Vol. 19, No 2, 685-738 [doi:10.1093/rof/rfu010], [working paper version]

Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimation Near the Boundary (joint with Peter Malec) Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 2014, Vol. 72, 57-72 [doi:10.1016/j.csda.2013.10.023], [working paper version]

Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks (joint with Nikolaus Hautsch and Julia Schaumburg) International Journal of Forcasting, 2014, Vol. 30, Issue 3, 781–794  [doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.09.004], [working paper version]

Capturing the Zero: A New Class of Zero-Augmented Distributions and Multiplicative Error Processes (joint with Nikolaus Hautsch and Peter Malec) Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2013, Vol. 12 No.1, 89-121 [doi: 10.1093/jjfinec/nbt002], [working paper version], [webappendix]

Nonparametric Regression with Nonparametrically Generated Regressors (joint with Enno Mammen and Christoph Rothe), the Annals of Statistics, 2012, Vol. 40, No. 2, 1132-1170 [doi:10.1214/12-AOS995] or via arXiv [pdf]


Additive Models: Extensions and Related Models (joint with Enno Mammen and Byeong U. Park) for the Handbook of Applied Nonparametric and Semiparametric Econometrics and Statistics (editors Racine, Ullah), Oxford University Press 2014 [working paper version]

Generated Covariates in Nonparametric Estimation: A Short Review (joint with Enno Mammen and Christoph Rothe),  in Recent Developments in Modeling and Applications in Statistics (editors Oliveira, da GraccaTemido, Henriques and Vichi), Springer 2013 [working paper version]

Nonparametric Estimation of Risk-Neutral Densities (joint with Maria Grith and Wolfgang Härdle) in Handbook of Computational Finance, Springer 2012 [working paper version]

Vorhersagen sind schwer,vor allem die Zukunft betreffend: Kurzzeitprognosen in der Pandemie (joint with Johannes Bracher, Daniel Wolffram, and Tilmann Gneiting), forthcoming DMV Mitteilungen, Vol. 29, No. 4, 2021, 186-190. [doi: 10.1515/dmvm-2021-0073] [working paper version]


working papers and ongoing work

Time-varying Limit Order Book Networks (with Chen, S., Härdle, W.), revise and submit (05/2021), pdf available on request

How Have German University Tuition Fees Affected Enrollment Rates: Robust Model Selection and Inference in High-Dimensions (with Konstantin Görgen), revise and resubmit (06/2022), [working paper on arXiv]

Robust Knockoffs for Controlling False Discoveries With an Application to Bond Recovery Rates (with K. Görgen and A. Nazemi) submitted (06/2022)

Predicting Value at Risk for Cryptocurrencies With Generalized Random Forests (with K. Görgen, J. Meirer) submitted (06/2022)

Identifying Success Factors of Microcredits Using Robust Variable Selection for High-Dimensional Panel Data (with L. Rüter), KIT working paper, pdf available on request (submitted 01/2023)


Ultra-High Dimensional Cointegration (with Shi Chen),  KIT working paper, pdf available on request (updated 11/2022)

Collaborative Nowcasting of COVID-19 Hospitalization Incidences (with J. Bracher, D. Wolffram, T. Gneiting and others), [link to platform]

Predicting Property Prices Using Augmented Crime Data: Extracting Information from Satellite Images with Convolutional Neural Networks (with J. Deuschel, K. Görgen), KIT working paper, pdf available on request (updated 06/2022)

Identifying Important Factors of Property Prices Using Satellite Images and Crime Data (with K. Görgen and K.Yu), KIT working paper, pdf available on request (updated 06/2022)

Success Factors in Football: An Analysis of the EURO 2020 (with V. Renner, K.Görgen, H.Wäsche), KIT working paper, pdf available on request (updated 06/2022)

Nonparametric Nonstationary Regression with many Covariates, revised and resubmitted, pdf available on request


Comparison and combination of real-time COVID19 forecasts in Germany and Poland (with J. Bracher, D. Wolffram, T. Gneiting and others),  [link to pre-registration]

Evaluating Panel Data Forecasts (with M. Reichenbacher)

Measuring Inflation Expectations with AirB&B Data (with K.Görgen)

Network Connectedness and Graphical Models (with R. Buse and J. Urban)

Testing Semiparametric Component Intra-day GARCH-X, KIT working paper

Nonparametric Regression with Missing Data (with Enno Mammen, Oliver Linton and Kyusang Yu)

Nonparametric Regression with Stationary and Nonstationary Variables (joint with Kyusang Yu)